Oscar Preview and Predictions, part 2

Best Supporting Actor


Who will win?
This might be the most statistically assured category of the night: Christoph Waltz will win for Inglourious Basterds. His closest competition is Woody Harrelson, who gives his best performance in years in The Messenger, but even he is not that close.


Who should win?
There's a reason Waltz has won everything in sight: as the delightfully menacing Han Landa, he's simply been the most outstanding supporting actor of the year (and this comes from someone whose been especially vocal about his dislike of Inglourious Basterds). On a seperate note, though, I would have liked to have seen Brad Pitt's equally immersive turn as Aldo Raine nominated. And why not one of the great comedic actors from In the Loop?


Best Supporting Actress


What will win?
Like Christoph Waltz, Mo'Nique looks to have this category sown up. As far as I can tell, there doesn't seem to be sufficient support for any of the other nominees to even a mount credible push to the top.


Who should win?
The reason no other nominee has been able to make a competant case for themselves is because they're just not as good as Mo'Nique in Precious, in which she manages to be both reviling and surprisingly vulnerable.


Best Actor


Who will win?
Although there still seems to be some goodwill for Colin Firth in A Single Man, he won't win this award, and for one reason: Jeff Bridges is nominated. Not only is Bridges' role as a fading country singer highly acclaimed, but there is consensus that it his time to win.


Who should win?
I haven't seen Crazy Heart, but I understand Jeff Bridges is brilliant in it. So, instead of who will win, I'll make this who should have been nominated. The first that comes to mind is A Serious Man's Michael Stuhlbarg who is wonderful as the Job-like Larry Gopnik.


Best Actress


Who will win?
Conventional wisdom would have you believe that awards season cinderella Sandra Bullock will win come Sunday for her sassy, southern turn in The Blind Slide. After all, she has won the Golden Globe and the SAG awards. But there are rumblings of Blind Side backlash that I predict will topple Bullock in the late stretch in favor of Meryl Streep in Julie and Julia.

Who should win?
Although I haven't seen either Bullock or Streeps' performances, I have to say I find them both grating in the previews. What I don't understand is why Gabby Sidibe in Precious has been completely ignored in this discussion. In my view, she delivered the rawest and most blisteringly human performance of the year.


Best Director


Who will win?
James Cameron brings an impressive technical pedigree to this award and is favored by many to win, but I think at the end of the day Kathryn Bigelow walks away with the prize for her visceral visual command of The Hurt Locker. The Academy just seems ready to give the award to a female director for the first time, and James Cameron has already won once.


Who should win?
Kathryn Bigelow does a terrific job of crafting a narrative that is both vividly stylized and realistic, but of the five nominated my choice for best director would actually be Lee Daniels, who is just as sensational in his direction of Precious.


Best Picture

What will win?
Avatar or The Hurt Locker? This queston has become more complicated with the recent news that a Hurt Locker producer sent an email to Academy voters criticizing Avatar and essentially stumping for votes. Prior to this I would have predicted The Hurt Locker winning the award. Did this email signal that The Hurt Locker's support is waning. Did the email turn off potential voters? Considering the Academy's new weighted voting system, I'm still predicting The Hurt Locker to win.


What should win?
The Hurt Locker is an electrifying war film; District 9 and A Serious Man are both brilliantly original; Avatar is a film with big, ploddingly simplistic ideas and many flaws. But the film that should win is Precious, which may be the most moving film of the year.