My first impressions:
1. I don't like the upset bids this year -- As I look at the bracket, I certainly don't see much upset potential in the first round. There are a few popular upsets that many are predicting.
- (11)San Diego State over (6)Tennessee: Although San Diego is riding high after winning a competitive Mountain West, I don't like their chances in this game. They don't possess any athletic advantage over Tennessee, and in truth their shooting is just as inconsistent as Tennessee's. As long as Tennessee doesn't look past them, I like the Vols to advance.
- (11)UTEP over (5) Butler: This is probably the surest upset of the tournament. Although I
like Butler's team play and experience, UTEP's inside-outside athleticism and defense should win the day. This is one of the few upset picks I actually feel confident about.
- (13)Murray State over (4)Vanderbilt: In my opinion, you can never discount a team as hot as Murray State. A 30 win team, Murray State is athletic and aggressive on the defensive front, but I don't like their matchup. Vanderbilt is a team uniquely built for tournament success. They have size on the inside, an experienced point guard, and hot perimeter scoring. If Vandy can advance past Murray State, then I like them to make a sweet sixteen and maybe challenge Syracuse for a spot in the elite eight.
- (11) Minnesota over (6)Xavier: Minnesota is tough defensively and is generally a good shooting team, but I don't like picking a team coming off a desperation high. Prior to their big ten tournament run Minnesota was squarely off the bubble and was in a win to get in situation. Now they're in, but can they translate their big ten tourney intensity to the NCAA. I think the best thing they have going for them is Tubby Smith, who knows how to get maximum production from his team. But I like Xavier's overall team chemistry and consistency. They have size and shooting and I like them to win and go to the sweet sixteen in an upset over Pitt.
- (10)Florida over (7)BYU: In my opinion, many analysts (except Joe Lunardi) are seriously underrating BYU's potential in this year's tournament. Yes, they haven't advanced past the first round in years, but this is their best team in years and I expect Jimmer Fredette to explode on to the national scene as one of the MVPs in the tournament. I think BYU is good enough to upset Kansas State in the second round. Also, I like Florida is one of the weakest teams in the tournament. They have some athletes on the team, but they're so inconsistent, both offensively and defensively.
- (12)Cornell over (5)Temple: Thanks to Jay Billas' incessant stumping for Cornell, they've become a popular pick to not only upset Temple in the first round but also maybe make a run to the final four. Although I think Cornell is possibly the 12 seed best equipped to do that, I don't like their opening round matchup. Temple is smothering defensively and I think just a better team. Temple had no problem containing Villanova's talented shooting guards, and I think they will do the same to Cornell's. Temple is the possible sleeper to reach the elite eight if they can't get past Wisconsin in the next round.
- (11) Washington over (6)Marquette: You have to give Washington credit for buckling down and winning their conference tournament, but I just don't think they pose any significant matchup problems to Marquette. Certainly, Washington has a legitimate star in Quincy Poindexter and Marquette will need to find a way to contain him, but Marquette is an active defensive unit, and Washington's run-and-gun guard attack is nothing they haven't seen before.
- (12)Utah State over (5)Texas A&M: I think Utah is one of the best lower seeded teams in the tournament and if they had been matched up against Butler or Michigan State I probably would have picked them to advance, maybe to the Sweet Sixteen, but ultimately I like Texas A&M in this game. They're a scrappy defensive unit that's been prepared by their difficult Big 12 conference schedule. If Texas A&M does survive this opening round, I think it's very possible they could pull off a shocker against Duke in the sweet sixteen.
- (13)Siena over (4)Purdue: Before Robbie Hummel's injury I liked Purdue to compete for the
championship, but his absence has caused considerable chemistry problems for the boilermakers. They squeaked by their remaining conference schedule before being embarrassed by Minnesota in the big ten tournament. Siena on the other hand is coming into this game relatively rested and with their athleticism and tournament experience I like them to pull off the upset.
- (11)Old Dominion over (6)Notre Dame: These two teams are in reality much closer than their seeding. Before going on a ridiculous big east run, Notre Dame was barely in the tournament. After Luke Harangody's injury they are seemingly playing better, but their lineup and team strategy is still in flux, and I like a prepared, tight-knit Old Dominion team to beat them.
As you can see I'm only predicting three upsets in the first round (four if you count Missouri over Clemson). History indicates there will be more, but I think this may be a year where the majority of the upsets come in the later rounds.
2. Despite their difficult path to the final four, Kansas will still make it -- Put simply, Kansas is
the deepest, most experienced, most balanced, and most well-coached of the major seeds. In a lot of ways, they remind me of the 2006-2007 Florida team. Their commitment to defense, their paralyzingly consistent offense, and their overall team dynamic is just that impressive.
3. What team seeded 3 or lower can make a run to the finals? -- When you're talking about surprise final four teams, anything lower than a two seed usually qualifies.
- (4)Wisconsin: They didn't acquit themselves well in the big ten conference tournament but I think they have the pieces in place to make it to the final four. This is an extremely disciplined team that doesn't make mistakes or turn the ball over. That combined with their hard-nosed defense and great shooting could be the winning formula. In the very least, I like Wisconsin to give Kentucky a run for their money in the sweet sixteen.
- (4)Vanderbilt: The Commodores are a very talented team. They have size in the interior and effective perimeter shooting, which could be the blue print for beating Syracuse's 2-3 zone. After that, who knows?
- (3)Baylor: They have great size, athleticism, and good shooters. I think they're going to give any team they play major matchup problems, especially Villanova. It also doesn't hurt that they have arguably the easiest bracket to go through.
- (7)BYU: This is a dark, darkhorse pick, but I really like the Cougars this year. If they can get past Kansas State, then the rest of the bracket sets up pretty well. They could possibly play Pitt, or a team that upsets Pitt like Xavier or Minnesota. Either way, I'd like BYU to advance. Then, the best team they'd have to play is Syracuse, who may be dealing with lineup problems.
I'd also like the University of New Mexico's chances but they have too many elite teams to get through in a stacked East region.
4. What high-seeded team are poised for an upset?
- (2)Kansas State: KSU is a great team-athletic and with great shooting by Cliemente and Pullen, but I think they're going to face a drastically underseeded BYU in the second round that may be prime for an upset.
- (1)Duke: Although they've been blessed by a notoriously unbalanced region, I just don't love the Blue Devils this year. This may be their best team in years, but do they really have the skill to make it to the fina four? I don't think so. I don't buy into the athleticism of their big men or the clutch shooting of their main scorers. They're possibly the best coached team in the tournament, but I like them to get bounced out in the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight.
- (3)Pitt: The Panthers were an overachieving bunch this year, but they're still young and offensively inconsistent. I like them to be upset in the second round.
- (3)Georgetown: They have a lot of potential, but I don't buy that a team that didn't make the tournament last year is suddenly going to make a sustained run. They certainly have talent but because of their big east tournament run, everyone is forgetting about their flaws.
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