Oscar Preview and Predictions, part 1

As you probably know, the Academy Awards are being held this Sunday, and naturally I've been hard at work coming up with my predictions. I'll go over the main categories and what I think will win.

Best Score

What will win?
In my opinion, Michael Giacchino's charming, disney-throwback score for Up clearly has the inside track in this category, not only because the film has won for this category at the Golden Globes, but als because Giacchino produced an acclaimed score for Star Trek as well. This is his year.

What should win?
Although I do appreciate the saccharine tone of Giacchino's work in Up, I happen to think that the best score in this category is Alexandre Desplat's in The Fantastic Mr. Fox. It's sparkling, whimsical, and at times deeply moving.

Best Cinematography

What will win?
This is a slightly difficult category to predict. If voters are judging purely by the actual aesthetic and photographic virtues of the film, than the evocative black-and-white The White Ribbon could win. However, if they're placing a high priority on technical innovation than Avatar wins in a landslide. My personal belief, Avatar wins (although if the voting results were ever revealed, I bet The White Ribbon would be a close second).

What should win?
I've been a fan of the visual world David Yates has created with the latest Harry Potter films, and sure enough The The Half-Blood Price was beautifully filmed. However, my favorite film in this category is actually Inglourious Basterds, photographed with impeccable richness by Robert Richardson.

Best Film Editing

What will win?
The race is clearly between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. The Academy usually loves tensely edited films like the The Hurt Locker, but they also seem to love showering James Camerons' record-breaking box office successes with every technical oscar imaginabe. Although I sincerely hope Avatar doesn't win because I think it was poorly edited, in the end it will, since the Academy rarely honors well-structured, nuanced editing over fast-paced, epic action.

What should win?
Although I thought The Hurt Locker was exceptionally well-done, I think the best edited films in this category were Precious and District 9, and of the two I think District 9 should win. It's mix of documentary and thrilling sci-fi drama was brilliant.

Best Adapted Screenplay

What will win?
The awards season Gods seemed to have annointed Up in the Air as the heir apparent in this category. And why not? It's a wry and incisive character-driven drama, and the Academy loves to honor those films for their screenplays.

What should win?
I'm not nearly as enamored of Up in the Air as others. I found George Clooney's performance to be merely adequate and the film's overall message to be trite. I don't know why other more adventurous and poignant films are constantly being igored, like Precious and the In the Loop. I would be greatly surprised if either of these two won the award, which is a shame. In the Loop is one of the most interesting comedies in recent memory and Precious presents a level of human grittiness that is truly exceptional.

Best Original Screenplay

What will win?
There are three films in this category that could potentially walk away the award. The first, and decidedly least likely, is the Coen Bros. grimly offbeat A Serious Man. At the start of the awards season, this film won every major critics prize for best original screenplay, but recently it's momentum, slim as it was, has stymied. However, you can't count out the Coen brothers. The favorites are certainly The Hurt Locker, a upstart as of late, and Inglourious Basterds. If you had asked me a few weeks ago which would win, I would say Inglourious Basterds in a heartbeat; however, The Hurt Locker's recent wins at the Writers Guild and BAFTA awards prove how close this race has become (although in fairness, Inglourious Basterds wasn't nominated at the WGA). Although The Hurt Locker has narrowed the gap, I still think Inglourious Basterds will win. It has a great deal of goodwill in the Academy and it has another advantage as well: It was written by Quentin Tarantino. With his uniquely, dialogue heavy work, this is the category he's supposed to win for.

What should win?
A Serious Man is everything a winner in this category should be: unique, layered, finely detailed, and resonant.